Category Archives: economics

economics internet

A Look at the Language of PIPA

I’m inspired by Brad Burnham’s post about the Protect IP Act that is about to go to the US Senate for its first vote. Brad and fifty-three other venture capitalists, representing forty firms, rightly recognized the threat that this Act poses to innovation and economic growth in one of our Economy’s most important sectors. Together, they drafted and signed a letter stating the reasons for their opposition, and encouraging the Senate to vote against it. You can (and should) read the letter.

Before joining Brad and company in opposition, I spent some time going through the text of the Act. Regardless of your position on Copyright, one cannot ignore the extent to which certain language in PIPA significantly expands the scope of responsibility for infringement. Even if this expansion of scope helps Copyright holders re-capture a greater proportion of the economic value that is rightfully theirs, it will do so only with serious collateral damage.

I thought it might be helpful to share some of the more egregious clauses (bolding is mine):

(7) the term ‘Internet site dedicated to infringing activities’ means an Internet site that–

(A) has no significant use other than engaging in, enabling, or facilitating the–

(i) reproduction, distribution, or public performance of copyrighted works, in complete or substantially complete form, in a manner that constitutes copyright infringement under section 501 of title 17, United States Code;
(ii) violation of section 1201 of title 17, United States Code; or
(iii) sale, distribution, or promotion of goods, services, or materials bearing a counterfeit mark, as that term is defined in section 34(d) of the Lanham Act; or

(B) is designed, operated, or marketed by its operator or persons operating in concert with the operator, and facts or circumstances suggest is used, primarily as a means for engaging in, enabling, or facilitating the activities described under clauses (i), (ii), or (iii) of subparagraph (A);

I wanted to call out the text above in bold, as this is the type of language that puts at risk the protective measures included in the Digital Millenium Copyright Act. In their letter to the Senate, Brad and his colleagues explain:

Online innovation has flourished, in part, because the Digital Millennium Copyright Act (DMCA), though flawed, created clear, defined safe harbors for online intermediaries. The DMCA creates legal certainty and predictability for online services — so long as they meet the conditions of the safe harbors, including an appropriate notice-and-takedown policy, they have no liability for the acts of their users. At the same time, the DMCA gives rights-holders a way to take down specific infringing content, and it is working well.

But the suffering doesn’t end with the accused. Payment providers, advertising services, and “location tools” (defined broadly as “including a directory, index, reference, pointer, or hypertext link”) – in other words, countless internet services – would be required to shut down all payment capabilities, advertisements, and hyperlinks to the “offending” site:

(B) FINANCIAL TRANSACTION PROVIDERS- A financial transaction provider shall take reasonable measures, as expeditiously as reasonable, designed to prevent, prohibit, or suspend its service from completing payment transactions involving customers located within the United States and the Internet site associated with the domain name set forth in the order.
(C) INTERNET ADVERTISING SERVICES- An Internet advertising service that contracts with the Internet site associated with the domain name set forth in the order to provide advertising to or for that site, or which knowingly serves advertising to or for such site, shall take technically feasible and reasonable measures, as expeditiously as reasonable, designed to–

(i) prevent its service from providing advertisements to the Internet site associated with such domain name; or
(ii) cease making available advertisements for that site, or paid or sponsored search results, links or other placements that provide access to the domain name.

(D) INFORMATION LOCATION TOOLS- An service provider of an information location tool shall take technically feasible and reasonable measures, as expeditiously as possible, to–

(i) remove or disable access to the Internet site associated with the domain name set forth in the order; or
(ii) not serve a hypertext link to such Internet site.

The Protect IP Act promises to unleash a torrent of law suits, which, successful or not, will stunt innovation.

If you value the free web, if you recognize it as a tremendous force for growth in a country slowing slipping behind, if the Internet is your ReligionTAKE ACTION.

 

Ode to a Purpose Built Social Network

Facebook has a big problem. Facebook’s big problem is Facebook.

Social networking applications are not like other businesses. In other businesses, new products built within an existing infrastructure and delivered through existing marketing and distribution channels benefit from economies of scale that help generate higher profits than would be possible on a standalone basis.

Yes, social networking applications benefit from economies of scale in production, marketing, and distribution channels, but they have a unique property that presents a unique challenge: the network itself.

There are two reasons why no single company will ever “own” the social web:

First, social behavior online, as offline, is largely informed by the context of that behavior. Am I conducting this behavior in front of my family, my friends, my co-workers, my best friends? Photos, videos, events, locations – the success of an application on a social network depends as much on the composition of the network as it does on the feature set.

In other words, my connections and the default privacy settings used to mediate my interaction with those connections can contribute as much to the value of an application as the design and functionality.

A location sharing feature is meaningless to me in the context where the default is to share with the 459 friends I’ve accumulated from who knows where on Facebook. Facebook could design the greatest location sharing application ever invented, but I’d rather recreate a social network on Foursquare, specifically for the use of that feature, than attempt to navigate the myriad privacy options on Facebook to more appropriately control my sharing.

Second, it’s easier to do one thing very well, then to do many things very well. To get a sense of what I mean, download and play around with Instagram. This application is 100% purpose built for mobile photo sharing. It integrates with Twitter, Foursquare, Flickr, Tumblr, Posterous, and Facebook. There are no other distractions in the application, no other purposes than to take a photo and share it with a group of people that you believe would find that photo relevant. It’s a great experience – just ask one of the one million users who signed up within the first two months of the product’s existence.

Taken together, these two arguments lead us to the fundamental point: the value of the user experience in the purpose built application, both in terms of functionality and appropriate social context, easily outweighs the cost of switching and rebuilding that context from scratch.

Facebook isn’t going anywhere, but they will never “own” the social web. They will forever be limited by their generality.

economics

Net Neutrality in the Senate

I came across an article on Net Neutrality on the newly redesigned (nice!) CNN.com:

“Today I’m pleased to introduce the Internet Freedom Act of 2009 that will keep the Internet free from government control and regulation,” McCain said in a statement. “It will allow for continued innovation that will in turn create more high-paying jobs for the millions of Americans who are out of work or seeking new employment. Keeping businesses free from oppressive regulations is the best stimulus for the current economy.” – John McCain

That’s a lovely statement. Now let’s see what this guardian of virtue is defending us from:

The FCC voted unanimously Thursday on a proposal that would start the process for creating regulation that will keep the Internet open. The proposal itself uses the FCC’s open Internet principles as a foundation and would forbid network operators from restricting access to lawful Internet content, applications, and services. It would also require network providers to allow customers to attach non-harmful devices to the network.

It seems counterintuitive that network operators, a small oligopolistic group of companies protected by massive barriers to entry resulting from extremely high fixed infrastructure costs, would need congressional help defending against the tyranny of their own users.

Left to their own devices, network operators would not hesitate to exert their power over the content they serve. This isn’t malicious – it makes business sense, but it unequivocally stifles innovation.

Network operators own the path between content creator and consumer. Without regulation, they are free to offer different tiers of access to that path to the highest bidder.

For example – let’s imagine that Google’s ability to pay dwarfs that of startupx, so that when Comcast rolls out a premium service at $10MM/year, Google walks away with the fastest, most reliable delivery network available. Even if startupx’s product makes Google look like Microsoft, without the ability to deliver their service with the same speed and reliability that Google offers, startupx doesn’t stand a chance. Innovation stifled.

I can appreciate caution in this situation. Taking regulation too far can be equally egregious, but given the history of the telecom industry, I would err on the side of regulation.

[FCC] Chairman Julius Genachowski…said that the commission is faced with a “dangerous combination of an uncertain legal framework with ongoing as well as emerging challenges to a free and open Internet.”

But he said the consequences of doing nothing are too great. And “fair and reasonable rules of the road” can’t wait.

economics

The Free Debate Rages On

There is a very nice piece by Brad Burnham of Union Square Ventures (and Wesleyan University) on the problem with the Free debate.

“Free is not a pricing strategy, a marketing strategy, or the inevitable consequence of a market with low variable costs. It’s a symptom of a much more fundamental economic shift.”

Brad has some shed light on the dark corners of Chris Anderson’s “economic” argument and has at the same time proposed a new way to think about the exchange of value in networked content delivery. Here is the problem that we encounter when trying to apply conventional economic models to modern web services: The price of a good is understood to rely on the supply of that good (production inputs of capital + labor) as well as the demand for that good (consumer utility). The question we have to ask however, is what happens when utility is driven by the number of consumers who engage in the service? Through their engagement, consumers end up increasing their own utility, thereby driving further user adoption (a shift outward in the utility curve). This in turn increases utility and continues the feedback loop.

When a user engages in a useful social web service, she derives a value from that service that is necessarily greater than her individual contribution. While the consumption of the greater-than-the-sum-of-its-parts final good is partially paid for by her contribution, the remainder is paid for in the form of user attention. Traditionally, user attention is then monetized by web services through a third party: advertisers. In some cases, user attention is sold back to the user at a premium (i.e. ad-free web experience).

Social web services supply users with a reliable infrastructure and a set of algorithms for the maintenance of a network. The infrastructure product could be a considered a direct good, as it results directly from capital and labor inputs paid for by a firm. The network phenomenon itself however, while sustained by the direct good, produces an indirect good that requires for its existence a healthy level of user engagement. This indirect good is the collective intelligence, and it results from a combination of a reliable infrastructure (including useful algorithms) and labor inputs given freely by the consumer. In other words, social web services supply two goods that differ in form, production, price, and demand dynamics.

I am having a difficult time wrapping my head around what might be considered a reasonable model for marginal cost for social web services. On the one hand you could argue that if infrastructure was the only good produced by social web services, then indeed marginal cost would seem to move inexorably towards 0. On the other hand, if you recognize that there is something else at play here, some other product being created by a network effect beyond the direct control of the social web service, then perhaps our traditional understandings of marginal cost fail to provide clarity. Perhaps one might look towards the more intangible costs of a healthy level of user engagement: brand trust, robust reputation systems, signaling potential, social context. These elements are more difficult to quantify, but should certainly be considered “inputs” into the production of a sustainable collective intelligence.

I highly recommend reading Brad’s article. Freeconomics desperately needs a more useful (and economically grounded) framework for debate or, as Brad says, “we are not just talking past each other, we are talking about the wrong things.”

economics

Network Neutrality a Myth?

With regards to my prior post, further perspective on the Wall Street Journal article:

“Google has been caught red-handed negotiating deals with ISPs to host servers inside the building, just like Akamai does. The semi-technical press thinks this is some sort of a game-changing event:”

http://bennett.com/blog/2008/12/google-gambles-in-casablanca/

“Google caches within an ISP’s network could make Picasa twice as fast as Flickr, Orkut faster than Facebook and so on.”

http://blog.wired.com/business/2008/12/google-blasts-w.html

economics

The Ruckus About Network Neutrality

This morning the Wall Street Journal published a story claiming that Google had approached broadband providers with hopes to secure higher quality content delivery services. A concept anathema to most Network Neutralites, Lawrence Lessig is even cited as “softening” his position on NN to allow for this kind of differentiation.

Lessig responds in a post here in which he appears to reject the characterization of his position:

“While broadband providers should be free, in my view, to price consumer access to the Internet differently — setting a higher price, for example, for faster or greater access — they should not be free to apply discriminatory surcharges to those who make content or applications available on the Internet. As I testified, in my view, such “access tiering” risks creating a strong incentive among Internet providers to favor some companies over others; that incentive in turn tends to support business models that exploit scarcity rather than abundance.”

After reading his post I was left confused over his use of the word “consumer”. The question that he was supposedly responding to had more to do with content producers like Google, Yahoo, and Microsoft than with consumers like you and me. I dug deeper to try to understand the semantics and watched an overview of his testimony to the FCC that he gave at Stanford.

The “consumer” Lessig refers to is the content producer after all. Google and Yahoo consume bandwidth just as you and I do. Lessig’s position is that Google should be able to pay a higher price for delivering video content at faster speeds if they want to, so long as all video content sites are offered the same price/opportunity. Further, a site that delivers only text content may not want such high speeds/bandwidth and may opt out of the higher price. He suggests that a parallel is that we pay more for overnight FedEx than FedEx ground.

I recognize that this model does not choke competition or seem unfair for the likes of Google, Microsoft and Yahoo, but I question whether or not this sort of barrier to entry for video startups, for example, is legitimate. If it costs $15MM for a video startup to deliver content in a competitive way, then I would submit that the differentiated pricing model based on Lessig’s “zero discriminatory surcharge” model is inherently unfair, and while it may avoid monopoly, it does nothing to prevent oligopoly. Finally, there is a vast difference between pure movement services (FedEx/UPS/Mail) and network operators. The analogy is more relevant to email services than to an entire system of markets and consumer interaction.

Then again, is this anything other than saying that the advantages of scale are just that: advantages? The most important point, as Lessig says, is that those advantages of scale are not locked in by preferential treatment. This is a thin line we tread.

economics

Media Speculation

“We need a merger partner or we’re not going to make it,” Mr. Mack told Mr. Pandit, according to two people briefed on the talks. Mr. Pandit, a former senior investment banker at Morgan Stanley, said Citigroup was not interested. It is thinking of deals it can strike with consumer banks, like buying the struggling Washington Mutual out of bankruptcy if its reported efforts to auction itself should fail, that would provide it with cheaper deposit funding. A Citigroup spokeswoman declined to comment.

On Thursday morning, a spokeswoman for Morgan Stanley said that Mr. Mack “vigorously denies” making the statement to Mr. Pandit.

Having failed at that, Mr. Mack entered into discussions on Wednesday with Wachovia and several other banks, people briefed on those discussions said. The talks with Wachovia are preliminary and a deal may not emerge. The banks declined to comment.”

This NY Times article reports a discussion based on speculation, writes a line noting that those involved in that discussion vehementaly deny it, then continues the article as if that denial had never happened. One would expect better from them.

Article here

careers economics

An email to a friend who asked me to explain the crisis…

I’m no expert but I thought this might be useful to someone. Edits encouraged.

“Lehman and AIG have a lot of money tied up with bad assets (that were poorly priced subprime mortgage bundles or a security tied to those bad mortgages) that had to be written down (when something turns out to be worth less than it had been).

What happens is that when an asset is written down, investors get nervous and call on their debt – as they are worried you might be unable to pay it back later (classic run on the bank) and so the company loses the liquidity offered by that debt. You need a certain amount of liquidity to function, and if you cannot get it then the run on the bank continues until your business is paralyzed.

So a vicious cycle ensues.

No one wanted to buy lehman because it would mean guaranteeing against default all of those incredibly risky (read: worthless) assets. Lehman should have acted on this months ago (as Merril is doing now) and today may have been avoided.

In the Bear Sterns case, paulson promised to back those bad assets on behalf of JP Morgan, so a deal was done. In this case he refused to, likely due to moral hazard considerations. Commerical banks backing pure investment banks (JP buying Bear, BofA buying Merril Lynch) seems to provide a solution, as they have a massive cash base to fund potential writedowns. Hopefully MS and GS can avoid having to resort to that.

So I guess this isn’t really an issue of fundamentals – the wheels, it’s an issue of the financial markets – grease on the wheels. Unemployment and gdp growth have nothing to do with this, but they will surely be effected. When companies require capital they come to investment banks. But the question is who will finance the financers? If investment banks themselves require capital then their ability to finance others will be compromised. This will have broad implications.

It’s a result of some incredibly bad decisions across the financial system mixed with greed and short sightedness. Couple that with a seemingly unquenchable thirst for credit from the American people and the world met by an enormous amount of cash around the world waiting to be invested anywhere for the highest returns no questions asked, and this is the result.”